Looking at the current scenario, you must be thinking “When should I launch my food business”
“Should I launch just after lockdown-like situation is over”
“Or should I wait for the markets to become normal again”
Or, in general, let’s wait for 2-3 months and then re-assess the market situation.
All these are pertinent questions to ask today. Because, you haven’t started yet. Because, you are yet to commit. If you have already committed (e.g. taken a premise on rent, hired the staff, bought the equipment etc), then this question is not relevant for you.
But if you are planning to commit, let me explain my understanding of the market situation.
Let’s assume that my end of May, lockdown like situation is over. Which means, all the markets have started functioning and restrictions are getting lifted one by one. You may be allowed to have dine-in facilities till say 9PM or 10PM.
But with some restrictions and a lot of regulations to follow. Which also means that you need to manage the situation (If you know what I mean) whenever Police or Municipality people visit your shop for inspection. This is going to be the reality of market.
Month of June will also see continuous juggling of hope and disappointment on the market front.
But that month will also mark the onset of Monsoons. 3 months of Monsoon (July, August and September) is also the leanest period in Food Industry. This implies that even if put up a brave face and launch your business in the month of June, you are not going to have an easy time for first 3 months. And it is not your fault, its just the seasonality pattern of this industry.
But if you are not aware about this, dull business in the first 3 months will create havoc with your energy and motivation levels. You will start feeling frustrated and dejected. You will start thinking yourself as a failure in business.
For no fault of yours.
The ‘Season’ for this industry typically starts with Navratri and Dussehra in India. Just before Navratri, Many Parts of India follow a “Shradh Period” which is considered inauspicious for new launch. Even if you don’t believe in it, look at it from your customers’ point of view. If they believe in ‘Shradh Period’, it will have an impact on your business.
This year, the Navratri is starting after 7th October. So, in all probability, wheel of fortune should start turning for good after this.
October to January (4 months) are considered best for Food & Hospitality Industry (Another seasonality trend).
Whatever you are doing today, you should plan taking full advantage of this season. In 2020, despite a bad year, Oct to Jan period saw relatively better performance from this industry.
This year, it should be better than last year.
So, fasten your seat belts and prepare to ride this wave. But, as a customer, will you eat out at a place which is ‘just opened’ in Oct 2021, or will you prefer to do business with establishments which are there in the market for quite some time?
Whatever you think as a customer, the same thing you should conclude as a marketer.
You generally don’t like to do business with a newbie unless you have heard about it, or have seen them in action for some time. This implies that you should aspire to become a familiar name when the ‘Season’ starts in Oct 2021.
How much time you think it takes to make your name familiar? 15 days, 30 days, 60 days, 100 days or longer.
That should tell you your launch date. Time required for initial brand building and awareness would vary for different Marketers / Cities / Cuisines / Customer segments.
If your answer is 30 days (for example), then subtract 30 days from 7th October. The result is 8th September. This should be your date of launch. And if you need to launch on 8th September, start working backwards. You will get complete clarity on your timelines.
Remember, if your answer is 15 days (instead of 30) or 60 days, the entire calculation is different for you.
That’s why I say, there are no right or wrong answer. The correct answer, for you, and the timelines, depends on the factors mentioned above.
Hope it helps and gives you clarity
Randheer